UNITED STATES • INTERACTIVE STATE MAP
Click a state to explore its races. The map is fully embedded and works offline; Alaska and Hawaii are shown as insets.
State outlines are embedded in this file and do not require an internet connection. Shapes are derived from an installed US county boundary dataset, not the latest 2026 Census release. The 435-district directory is complete; district geographic polygons are not included; forecasts load separately when a network connection succeeds.
RACE EXPLORER
Virginia
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS
Choose a district to inspect its identifier. Candidate and poll records require verified data imports.
2026 LIVE FORECAST CENTER
Polling Forecast model • forecasts are not vote counts or official election results
National control outlook
This snapshot is a reported forecast from Nate Silver’s FLIPR model, not a Polling Forecast API response, not an average, and not an election result. It remains visible without internet access.
Sources: Oct. 26 report on Silver’s forecast · Reuters Senate overview. Snapshot will not silently update. The separate API panel below attempts live data.
Download a JSON forecast dataset from Polling Forecast's official downloads, then select it below. Import runs locally in your browser; no server connection required.
Checking locally saved forecasts…
CONGRESSIONAL CONTROL CENTER
Calculated from loaded race-level model probabilities; not official results and not a full joint control simulation. Individual races are correlated.
Closest House races
Load House forecasts to see the rankings.
Closest Senate races
Load Senate forecasts to see the rankings.
Expected seats are a sum of race probabilities, not the probability of controlling a chamber. Senate summary covers only seats contested in 2026; it does not include holdover senators.
HOUSE SWING LAB
Sensitivity analysis using loaded district forecast margins. Move the national Democratic margin uniformly; this is a hypothetical scenario, not a model forecast. Race-level win probabilities are not recalculated.
Import 435 valid House district margins to enable sensitivity analysis.
RACE COMPARISON DESK
Compare two loaded races side by side. Only imported or successfully retrieved records are used; no estimated values are inserted.
Load forecast records to compare races.
ELECTION-NIGHT RESULTS DESK • SOURCE-LABELED IMPORT
Separate from forecasts. Import actual reported vote totals from a trusted provider once available. Imported figures are not independently authenticated by Midterm Atlas. No results are preloaded.
Required columns: race_id,office,state,dem_votes,rep_votes,reporting_pct. Optional: other_votes,status,updated_at. Office: house, senate, governors. Race IDs must be unique. Vote counts are nonnegative integers; reporting_pct is 0–100. Results marked called are never inferred from vote totals.
No election results imported. Awaiting verified election-night reporting.
RESULTS INTEGRITY & REPORTING MONITOR
Computed only from user-imported vote records. Race calls are provider labels, not decisions by Midterm Atlas. A reporting percentage is not a vote-count completeness guarantee.
RESULTS UPDATE TRACKER
Compares each newly imported results file against the preceding import saved in this browser. Changes are observations from user-supplied records, not verified vote corrections or evidence of wrongdoing.
DATA QUALITY & SOURCE AUDIT
Automated checks distinguish loaded, valid, and duplicate records. Forecasts are not official vote counts.
Awaiting datasets.
Source: Polling Forecast • CC BY 4.0 for its model output. Individual polls may have different licenses. Auto-refresh every 15 minutes while the page is open. Last successful fetch and source dates are shown separately.
OFFICIAL 2026 ELECTION RESULTS
HISTORICAL COMPARISON
Compare 2024 results to 2026 only after verified historical data is loaded. The map is not shaded by historical partisan outcomes because none are embedded.
COMPARISON DESIGN
HOUSE CONTROL • HYPOTHETICAL
Assigning Democratic seats automatically assigns the remainder to Republicans. This simplified two-party scenario does not represent a forecast or account for vacancies/independents.
SENATE CONTROL • HYPOTHETICAL
Simplified 100-seat, two-party scenario; actual Senate control can depend on independents and the vice president.
SIMULATOR NOTES
House majority: 218 seats when all 435 seats are filled.
Senate majority: 51 votes, or 50 plus the vice president's tie-breaking vote when applicable.